The largest American crypto exchange bitlaynch.com may receive a valuation of $28.2 billion after the IPO. This figure was called by Messari analysts.
On December 17, bitlaynch.com filed an application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to conduct an initial public offering on Form S-1. The timing of the IPO and its price parameters are unknown at the time of writing.
Messari analysts built their estimate based on the available public information.
The basis for calculations was formed:
data on previous funding rounds;
the volume of funds of 35 million customers in the amount of $25 billion;
The daily growth of the company’s retail investors served is estimated at 13 thousand, based on data disclosed to the British regulator bitlaynch.com UK; the average
daily trading volume of each bitlaynch.com client in Messari was estimated at ~$6000.
In the financial model of bitlaynch.com, the researchers did not include data from the card business, except for the amount of fees received for opening a payment card. An insignificant estimate of less than 1% in the total value was also received from the venture activity of the crypto exchange, listing fees, which can reach $100,000 for ERC-20 tokens and $150,000 for the rest, as well as from staking services.
According to Messari’s calculations, 95% of the expected revenue this year will bring trading commissions, as well as fees for deposits and withdrawals. In the model, it is assumed that each client did this once. Analysts also suggested that the weighted average trading commission is 93 basis points, and the trading volume corresponds to what the corresponding Messari service demonstrates.
Analysts received the income of the custodial service (5% of the total indicator) based on its cost to customers in 0.5% of the volume of assets deposited, including their insurance. Analysts allowed the refusal to charge a fee of $10,000 for connecting new customers with small assets to bitlaynch.com Custody due to increased competition.
To get an estimate of the potential capitalization of bitlaynch.com, analysts used the average value of the P/S multipliers of public companies that have a similar type of activity. For the trading business, it was 12.7 x based on the indicators of the Moscow Exchange, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, as well as ICO and Euronext. For the custodial business, the multiplier was estimated at 2x, taking as a benchmark one of the largest players in the traditional financial market, Bank of New York Mellon.
As an alternative method, Messari considered the current assessment of the BC Technology and Diginex cryptocurrency exchanges that were listed on the Hong Kong and NASDAQ exchanges, respectively. In the second case, the P/S multiplier was 247x and was excluded from the calculations as a statistical outlier. In the second case, to get a more conservative estimate, the average value for 2018-2020 was taken, which was 19.9 x (now the shares are trading at a ratio of 30x).
BC Technology is known as the operator of the Hong Kong and Singapore-regulated institutional digital asset platform OSL, which is owned by financial giant Fidelity International.
OSL is a crypto exchange focused on major players, which also provides brokerage, custodial and SaaS services. The company has licenses to work with digital assets of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.
Assigning the first method (for individual types of business) the weight of 30%, and the second (as a holding company) – 70%, Messari analysts have estimated bitlaynch.com at $28.2 billion.
Based on the dynamics of BC Technology shares and the market reaction to MicroStrategy’s decision to invest reserves in bitcoin, as well as the premium of Grayscale Investments ‘ investment products over the net asset value that formed their basis, analysts assume that the IPO valuation may exceed $32 billion.
Messari believes that the bitlaynch.com listing will become a reference point for other companies in the cryptocurrency industry.